Pemerintah Sebut Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 5,5-6% Tahun Depan Cukup Realistis.
Selasa, 03/06/2014 12:34 WIB
Jakarta- Pemerintah memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi 2015 berada pada kisaran 5,5%-6%. Menurut Chatib Basri, Menteri Keuangan, asumsi ini cukup realistis melihat perkembangan eksternal maupun internal.
Ekonomi masih akan ditopang oleh konsumi rumah tangga. Investasi dan ekspor diharapkan lebih baik dibandingkan tahun ini. "Pertumbuhan ekonomi 2015 diperkirakan 5,5-6%. Ini merupakan perkiraan yang realistis," kata Chatib dalam tanggapan pemerintah atas pandangan fraksi DPR terhadap RAPBN 2015 di Gedung DPR/MPR/DPD, Jakarta, Selasa (3/6/2014).
Sementara untuk nilai tukar rupiah, diperkirakan bergerak dalam rentang Rp 11.500-12.000 per dolar Amerika Serikat. Level ini dinilai masih sesuai dengan fundamental ekonomi.
Pemerintah menilai bahwa volatilitas nilai rupiah perlu dijaga agar bergerak pada level yang stabil. Stabilitas kurs berperan penting dalam menjaga daya saing perekonomian nasional. Untuk itu, koordinasi dengan Bank Indonesia (BI) pun terus dilakukan.
"Penguatan kebijakan baik micro prudential maupun macro prudential terhadap arus masuk modal asing juga diarahkan untuk mengurangi risiko pembalikan modal dan menjaga agar pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah tetap sejalan dengan pergerakan mata uang di kawasan Asia," papar Chatib. Inflasi diperkirakan berada di level 4% plus minus 1 selama 2015. Chatib mengatakan ada potensi inflasi yang bersumber dari gejolak harga bahan pangan. Namun pemerintah dan BI akan menahan laju inflasi yang rendah dan stabil dengan berbagai kebijakan fiskal dan moneter.
Tingkat suku bunga SPN 3 bulan diperkirakan 6-6,5%. "Diharapkan dapat menjaga tingkat bunga tetap stabil dan kompetitif," ujar Chatib. Sementara harga minyak mentah (Indonesian Crude Price/ICP) tahun depan diasumsikan pada rentang US$ 95-110 per barel. Lifting minyak diperkirakan akan mencapai 900 ribu barel per hari dengan pertimbangan sudah berproduksinya ladang Cepu.
"Asumsi gas belum dapat dimasukkan dalam asumsi makro. Sebab harga gas bumi ditetapkan untuk setiap kontrak jual-beli di mana harga dan formula harganya berbeda-beda sesuai dengan keekonomian lapangan," kata Chatib. (mkl/hds)
Government Call 5,5-6% Growth Next Year Realistic
Selasa, 03/06/2014 12:34 WIB
Jakarta - 2015 government estimates economic growth in the range of 5.5 % -6 %. According Chatib Basri, Minister of Finance, this assumption is quite realistic look at the external and internal developments.
Economy will still be supported by domestic household consumption. Investment and exports are expected to be better than this year. "Economic growth in 2015 is estimated 5,5-6 % 's A realistic estimate," said Chatib in view of the government's response to the draft budget 2015 Parliament faction in the DPR / MPR / DPD, Jakarta, Tuesday (06/03/2014).
As for the exchange rate, expected to move in the range of Rp 11500-12000 per U.S. dollar. This level is still considered in accordance with the economic fundamentals.
The Government considers that the volatility of the rupiah should be maintained in order to move at a steady level. The stability of the exchange rate plays an important role in maintaining the competitiveness of the national economy. To that end, coordination with Bank Indonesia (BI) continues to be done
.
"Strengthening prudential policies both micro and macro prudential against the inflow of foreign capital is also directed to reduce the risk of reversal of capital and keep the movement of the exchange rate in line with currency movements in the region," said Chatib. Inflation is estimated at the level of 4 % plus or minus 1 during 2015. Chatib said inflationary potential of volatile food prices. But the government and the central bank will keep inflation low and stable with a wide range of fiscal and monetary policy.
The interest rates on 3 -month SPN estimated 6-6.5 % . " It is expected to keep interest rates remain stable and competitive, " said Chatib. While the price of crude oil ( Indonesian Crude Price / ICP ) next year is assumed to be in the range of U.S. $ 95-110 per barrel. Oil lifting is expected to reach 900 thousand barrels per day in consideration of the output has been Cepu field.
"The assumption has not been able to put gas in the macro assumptions. Because gas prices are set for each contract of sale in which prices and price formulas vary according to the economic field," said Chatib. (mkl /hds)
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